Update on Peyton and upcoming FF drafts

Sorry this has been a little late getting out, but it is Fantasy Football draft season.
Oh yeah and we moved house too!

First, be afraid, be very afraid of Peyton Manning. I am getting a bad feeling that he will not be ready for Week 1. In addition, do not forget IND has their bye early in week 4, so it is conceivable that he rests until week 5. That is right folks he is a risk to miss five of your precious regular season FF games. Not saying it will happen, just that it might.

Pleased to announce that I am participating in three of the four top High Stakes Leagues this year. In order of their drafts:

National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) Classic Saturday 30 Aug 1 PM EST for $100,000 top prize, $8,750 in league prizes. Entry fee $1,300

NBC Primetime Saturday 30 Aug 7 PM EST for $100,000 top prize, $8,750 in league prizes. Entry fee $1,300

Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) Friday 5 Sept 9 PM EST for $75,000 top prize, $7,500 in league prizes. Entry fee $1,375

I also am playing in a satellite or two for the World Championship of Fantasy Football (WCOFF) although I could not make the main event, which would have been my third year in a row appearing.

And many more $250-$500 satellites so you can see I put my money where my mouth is.
Last year I had a ROI of over 10%. Not too shabby!

Many have asked and YES, I have entered in the Fantasy Football Open Championship (FFOC), which is offering the top team 1 Million dollars. It is a long shot with so many entries and not all the drafts occurring at the same time, but what the heck.

I am preparing for my local, 16 Team, PPR, minimal keeper live Lakenheath draft today.
We even had an owner fly in from the U.S to draft here in England. That is dedication to a hobby! We have owners in the Middle East, Europe and North America.

Expert drafts, rankings and interviews

Look for my rankings and commentary in Fantasy Football Index magazine on pages 54-71.
In that same issue my Auction team from their Fantasy Football Index Mock Auction is discussed on pages 78-83. Of note is the “Which team is the team to beat?” where 4 of the other 11 Experts pick my team as one to beat. Others getting 4 votes were David Dodds from FootballGuys.com and Scott Pianowski from Yahoo sports.
I am also featured weekly on www.fantasy index.com in the “Ask the Experts” column.
Speaking of Experts, check out my fantasy football team at www.expertsdraft.com and track the success of that team against the other experts. You will find our recent draft, interviews about the thought process and much more.

Top 4 RBs

Looks like the Top 4 RBs in the standard performance PPR league are pretty much set.

1) LT gets the #1 spot in most cases

2) Adrian Peterson

3) Steven Jackson

4) Brian Westbrook

You can shuffle the #2-#4 spots but all 4 end up in the Top 4 somewhere

Best Sleeper Pick and why?

Matt Forte (RB CHI). Many cheat sheets have him around 28th overall for RBs. Yes he is a rookie and you should not take too many chances on new meat in the NFL. However, rookie RBs are the most successful players and especially when they have the opportunity to excel. Forte has been given the starting role with the recent release of Cedric Benson. He has only Adrian Peterson pushing him. Forte showed real promise at Tulane and given the ball by Lovie Smith in Chicago, he could easily be a Top 15 RB (especially in NON PPR leagues).

Name one player who you would not draft and will never be on your team

First, this is a trick question. Every player available is on my draft list. Some are just much farther down my draft rankings then others. Ultimately, anyone can provide value and if I think a player can help me win, then I will draft him.
As an example, Travis Henry and Kevin Jones are both on my RB boards. Yes way down in the 50-60 range. Still if one of them was around in a late round, I would take a chance on one of them as a sleeper. If they did not pan out, I could drop them and add some other player mid season. Although I think neither will do well this season they are on my draft list. No player is eliminated because it just limits your choices.

Top 5 Kickers and Why

Contrary to the quirky, yet comical ESPN commercial Kickers are not a rare commodity that must be drafted early and often. Wait on these guys until the very end of the draft. How late? Well as always it depends on the size of your league, the scoring rules and the roster limits of your team, but these guys are the least predictable from year to year. As a general Rule of Thumb (ROT) I pick Kickers with my last or next to last pick and never get more than 1 unless you have no waiver ability throughout the season. Unless your scoring rules really reward long FGs, they will be better off drafted later and fewer.

1. Steven Gostkowski NE- Anyone who kicks for NE is going to get lots of Fantasy Points. The only concern here is that NE scores more TDS than FGs.

2. Adam Vinatieri IND-Same logic as above. If you kick for Peyton Manning and company, chances are you will get locks of kicks.

3. Nick Folk DAL- My sleeper from last year really came through. Dallas has not changed much from last year. Look for more of the same.

4. Mason Crosby GB- I do not believe the Packers will be the same this year without Brett Favre. A Rodgers means more FG attempts when they stall in the opponents side of the field.

5 Rob Bironas TEN-Here is a sleeper Kicker that you may be able to get in the next to last rounds. TEN should improve on last years scoring performance.

TOP 5 TEs and why

1) Antonio Gates SD- A little banged up last year so do not let last years numbers fool you. The big thing is that he recovers from offseason surgery. He will. Pencil in 900 yards and 9 TDs.

2) Jason Witten DAL-Top ranked TE last year. That has to mean something. Yeah it means Gates was hurt. Jason gets his 7 TDs and almost 1000 yards but not as many catches.

3) Kellen Winslow CLE-Catches and yards are not the problem. It is TDs. KW gets 6 TDs and leads the league in catches/yards in 2008. That makes him TE#3.

4) Tony Gonzalez KC-Especially in a PPR league this guy is money. Lots of catches and yards, not so many TDs in recent years. He is getting a little old but has great conditioning and will be used by whoever gets the starting QB job.

5) Todd Heap BAL-Cam Cameron as OC. If (and that is the big IF) he stays healthy he could be #1 TE.