Sunday, January 18, 2009

The Fantasy Football Almanac 2008 blog has eneded; please see my Fantasy Football Guidebook blog, as it goes on all year long

I have decided to stop the Fantasy Football Almanac posts as they are essentially the same as my blog for the book Fantasy Football Guidebook, an Award-Winning Finalist in the Sports category of the National Best Books 2008 Awards, sponsored by USA Book News, available at my website, http://www.ffguidebook.com/, at all major bookstores, and at http://www.amazon.com/.

Please check out my continuous blog here entitled Fantasy Football Guidebook or visit my web site http://www.ffguidebook.com/ where the blog also resides.

Please see my

This has been edited to add this note:

My nosy Tabby cat Samantha made her daily walk across the key board and submitted this blog post. I have decided to leave it in dedication to my old faithful cat.

How do you see the remainder of the postseason playing out?

PIT vs. BAL will be a great game as two tough defenses face off. To quote Yogi Berra, "It's like déjà vu all over again" as a rookie QB advances to the AFC Championship game. And just like Roethlisberger in 2004, Flacco will lose. PHI should win at AZ as McNabb makes a last attempt at a Super Bowl ring; that’s right a Pennsylvania Super Bowl, PIT vs. PHI. And the winner is……………… the Eagles with McNabb and Westbrook sharing MVP honors in the 43rd Super Bowl, denying Pittsburgh a 6th ring and joining the Phillies as world champions in the same year.

As seen in ASK THE EXPERTS, Fantasy Football Index's Expert column found at http://www.fantasyindex.com. ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly with answers to a new question posted Thursday morning.

Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, an Award-Winning Finalist in the Sports category of the National Best Books 2008 Awards, sponsored by USA Book News, available at his website, http://www.ffguidebook.com, at all major bookstores, and at www.amazon.com. He is an 18-year fantasy football veteran who has teams in the World Championship of Fantasy Football (WCOFF), National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC), NBC Sports Fantasy Championship and the inaugural season of the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC).

Saturday, January 17, 2009

2009 Fantasy Football QB Rankings and Projections

Here they are.

Scoring based on 4 pts per passing TD, 6 pts per rushing TD, 1 pt per 25 passing yards and -1 pt per interception.



Of course, these rankings will change a bit as the off season continues. You can find the most current rankings and projections in Fantasy Football Almanac 2009 out 1 May and available at amazon.com, BN.com and FFGuidebook.com



I will provide more analysis on the why and where next post. Enjoy!

Player Team P Yds TD INT MISC FP

1 D Brees NO 4800 32 16 304

2 P Manning IND 4000 31 12 1 Rtd 278

3 T Romo DAL 4200 30 17 1 Rtd 277

4 A Rodgers GB 4000 28 15 3 Rtd 275

5 J Cutler DEN 4500 25 18 2 Rtd 274

6 M Cassel/ Brady NE 4000 26 12 2 Rtd 264

7 P Rivers SD 4000 26 12 252

8 K Warner/Leinar AZ 4000 27 16 252

9 S Hill SF 4000 24 18 2 Rtd 250

10 D McNabb PHI 3800 24 12 2 Rtd 248

11 T Thigpen KC 3500 24 16 3 Rtd 238

12 C Palmer CIN 3800 25 20 232

13 C Pennington MIA 3800 20 8 224

14 M Schaub* HOU 4000 20 16 Inj rsk 224

15 D Garrard JAX 3800 18 14 2 Rtd 222

16 B Roethlisberge PIT 3300 19 15 2 Rtd 208

17 T Jackson MIN 3000 23 20 2 Rtd 206

18 M Hasslebach SEA 3400 21 15 205

19 Eli Manning NYG 3200 22 12 204

20 Matt Ryan ATL 3600 18 14 202

21 J Delhomme CAR 3200 14 10 2 Rtd 202

22 Favre/Clemmons NYJ 3400 20 20 196

23 K Orton CHI 3000 18 12 2 Rtd 192

24 J Campbell WAS 3300 15 8 184

25 Joe Flacco BAL 3000 14 14 2 Rtd 174

26 Ja Russell OAK 2700 14 10 3 Rtd 172

27 M Bulger STL 3200 16 20 172

28 Brady Quinn CLE 3200 16 20 172

29 T Edwards BUF 3000 17 25 171

30 J Kitna/Orlosky DET 3000 18 25 167

31 J Garcia TB 2700 17 12 164

32 K Collins TEN 2400 12 10 134

33 S Rosenfels HOU

34 V Young TEN

Friday, January 16, 2009

Carson Palmer pick as #3 QB erases chance at Fantasy Football Index magazine 2008 Experts Ranking title for Sam Hendricks

Roland Wood and the guys at Dynasty Rogues are the winners of the 18th
annual Experts Poll hosted by Fantasy Football Index magazine. Wood
outscored the other 19 experts in the quarterbacks competition, and that
allowed him to sneak past a handful of other contenders and win this year¹s
competition.

With Carson Palmer as the #3 QB in my rankings I knew things looked bleak heading into the final round of Fantasy Football Index magazines 2008 Experts Ranking title. These rankings were submitted in May of 2008 by 20 Experts and Fantasy Football Index magazine itself. I finished 7th in Defenses and 2nd in Kickers. TEs were a disappointment as I dropped to 6th overall after they were graded. WRs and RBs dropped us slightly in the overall standings but Carson Palmer (along with T. Brady at #1) sank us at QB and denied us a spot in the Fantasy Football Index 2009 Experts League. Look for my picks again this year and I promise a top finish in 2009.

In this competition, which dates back to 1991, every pick is scored in varying
degrees. The higher you rank a player, the more points he scores for you in
the poll so the experts are graded on essentially all of the significant
players. Drew Brees, for example, was the highest scoring quarter back in
this scoring format, scoring 389 points. If you ranked Brees No. 1 on your
board, that would be worth 7787 points 20 multiplied by 389. If you ranked
Brees 5th, you would get 5840 points (15 x 389). If you had Brees 19th, you
would have gotten 779 points (2 x 389).

The top 11 finishers in this poll earn spots in the magazine's 2009 Experts
League, which will be published in the upcoming edition of the magazine. And
draft order in that league is determined by the order of finish in this
competition. There¹s also a 12th spot in that league that goes to a Fantasy Football Index subscriber.

Wood compiled a solid overall card to win the competition. He fared poorly
in kickers (17th) and below-average in wide receivers (14th), but he was
very good in all of the other categories 1st in defenses, 2nd in running
backs and 3rd in tight ends.

And his win at quarterback allowed him to win the whole deal. Former
champion Scott Pianowski (Yahoo!) finished 2nd, and perennial contender
Michael Nazarek (Fantasy Football Mastermind) took 3rd. Look for my predictions, projections and rankings in Fantasy Football Almanac 2009 available on May 1 in online retailers such as amazon.com, BN.com and at my website www.FFGuidebook.com

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Fantasy Football Guidebook holds 6th place overall in 2008 Experts Rankings for Fantasy Footbal Index magazine after TE, K and DEF

Fantasy Football Guidebook holds 6th place overall in Fantasy Football Index magazines 2008 Expert Rankings after TEs were evaluated.
Tommy Stephens of FANTASY FOOTBALL EDGE is the winner of the Tight Ends
portion of the 2008 Experts Poll hosted by Fantasy Football Index magazine.

This is from the poll that is published in the magazine - 20 experts listing
their top 20 at each position. Every pick is scored. And in the tight ends
portion of the competition, Stephens is the winner. He was followed by
Michael Nazarek (FANTASY FOOTBALL MASTERMIND) and Roland Wood (DYNASTY
ROGUES).

Nazarek, meanwhile, has moved into first place in the overall competition,
with Wood and Scott Endsley (FANTASY DRAFT EDGE). The three most important
positions - QB, RB, WR - are still in play, so it's wide open. Thus far,
Endsley has put together the most impressive scorecard, ranking in the top 5
in all three positions (defenses, kickers and tight ends).

The poll, started in 1991, is different from other experts competition in
that every expert has to take a stand on every significant player - every
pick is scored. If an expert ranks a player No. 1 at a position, that
player's actual fantasy production is multiplied by 20. If an expert ranks a
player No. 2, the player's production is multiplied by 19. If the expert
ranks a player No. 3, the multiplier number is 18, and so on.

In case of Stephens, for example, he ranked Jason Witten as his top tight
end. Witten finished with 119.2 points in this scoring system, so that
choice was worth 2,384 points to Stephens (119.2 x 20). Looking at Stephens'
overall board, there isn't any knockout-type that lifted him ahead of
everyone else. He was one of the few to put Witten ahead of Antonio Gates;
that got him a few points. And he was among the highest on Owens Daniels
(8th) and Tony Scheffler (7th), and they both had solid years. Regardless,
when you add them all up, he's the winner.

Fantasy Football Index isn't an official part of this poll. We administrate
and score the deal, so we've always taken a step back on this thing. It
seems like the right thing to do. Unlike the experts, for example, we would
have the ability to go back in and tinker with our rankings after the
mid-May deadline. For this year, we would have had the ability to bail out
on Cedric Benson and Travis Henry, who ran into off-field problems after the
experts deadline but before our print deadline. But we always plug in our
magazine picks to see how they compare. So far, we're off to our worst
showing ever in the Experts Poll - below-average in all three positions.

The top 11 finishers in this poll earn spots in the magazine's 2009 Experts
League, which will be published in the upcoming edition of the magazine.
Whichever expert finishes first in the overall poll will get his choice of
draft position; the 2nd-place finisher will get second choice of draft
spots, and so on. The 12th and final draft spot will go to a Fantasy
Football Index reader.


FANTASY INDEX EXPERTS POLL, TIGHT ENDS

Points
18,520 Tommy Stephens (fantasyfootballedge.net)
18,397 Michael Nazarek (ffmastermind.com)
18,225 Roland Wood (dynastyrogues.com)
18,203 Bob Henry (footballguys.com)
18,141 Scott Endsley (fantasydraftedge.com)
18,081 Greg Alan (4for4.com)
18,028 Craig Davis (fantasyfootball.com)
18,004 Jeffrey Kamys (docstats.com)
17,971 Greg Rosenthal (rotoworld.com)
17,890 Scott Pianowski (Yahoo Sports)
17,857 Christopher Liss (rotowire.com)
17,827 David Dorey (thehuddle.com)
17,754 Louis Tranquilli (bfdfantasyfootball.com)
17,740 Lenny Pappano (draftsharks.com)
17,716 James Serra (footballsoftward.com)
17,657 Sam Hendricks (ffguidebook.com)
17,655 Ryan Houston (fanball.com)
17,539 Nathan Zegura (thefantasyconsultant.com)
17,404 Dan Bakley (thefantasypoint.com)
14,978 Kevin Marshall (draftwizard.com)

17,459 * Fantasy Football Index magazine picks

* -- magazine not official part of poll.


FANTASY INDEX EXPERTS POLL, CURRENT OVERALL
(includes kickers and defense/special teams)

Points
73,866 Michael Nazarek (ffmastermind.com)
73,859 Scott Endsley (fantasydraftedge.com)
73,426 Roland Wood (dynastyrogues.com)
73,345 Jeffrey Kamys (docstats.com)
73,289 Scott Pianowski (Yahoo Sports)
72,982 Sam Hendricks (ffguidebook.com)
72,974 Bob Henry (footballguys.com)
72,872 David Dorey (thehuddle.com)
72,818 Greg Alan (4for4.com)
72,729 Christopher Liss (rotowire.com)
72,710 Louis Tranquilli (bfdfantasyfootball.com)
72,622 James Serra (footballsoftward.com)
72,470 Tommy Stephens (fantasyfootballedge.net)
72,468 Dan Bakley (thefantasypoint.com)
72,204 Lenny Pappano (draftsharks.com)
72,198 Greg Rosenthal (rotoworld.com)
72,122 Ryan Houston (fanball.com)
70,400 Nathan Zegura (thefantasyconsultant.com)
69,689 Craig Davis (fantasyfootball.com)
68,458 Kevin Marshall (draftwizard.com)

71,016 * Fantasy Football Index magazine picks

* -- magazine not official part of poll.



Tight ends were given 6 points for each touchdown and 1 point for every 10
yards. No points for receptions. Final scoring was as follows ...

Points (No-Yds-TD)
165.8 Tony Gonzalez (96-1058-10)
120.8 Dallas Clark (77-848-6)
119.2 Jason Witten (81-952-4)
118.4 Antonio Gates (60-704-8)
101.6 Visanthe Shiancoe (42-596-7)
98.2 Owen Daniels (70-862-2)
92.7 John Carlson (55-627-5)
90.9 Chris Cooley (83-849-1)
87.4 Anthony Fasano (34-454-7)
87.4 Greg Olsen (54-574-5)
83.8 Zach Miller (56-778-1)
82.4 Tony Scheffler (40-644-3)
74.4 Kevin Boss (33-384-6)
71.5 Dustin Keller (48-535-3)
69.4 Heath Miller (48-514-3)
68.1 Bo Scaife (58-561-2)
63.9 Billy Miller (45-579-1)
63.0 David Martin (31-450-3)
62.9 Daniel Graham (32-389-4)
60.9 Marcedes Lewis (41-489-2)
60.8 Kellen Winslow (43-428-3)
60.3 Donald Lee (39-303-5)
58.3 Todd Heap (35-403-3)
52.3 Martellus Bennett (20-283-4)
51.7 Jerramy Stevens (36-397-2)
48.9 Vernon Davis (31-369-2)
48.3 Jeremy Shockey (50-483-0)
47.8 L.J. Smith (37-298-3)
43.0 Alex Smith (21-250-3)
42.7 Desmond Clark (41-367-1)
41.1 Robert Royal (33-351-1)
32.9 Benjamin Watson (22-209-2)
31.7 Alge Crumpler (24-257-1)
25.5 Jeff King (21-195-1)
19.4 Chris Baker (21-194-0)
13.9 Randy McMichael (11-139-0)
13.6 Matt Spaeth (17-136-0)
12.3 Ben Utecht (16-123-0)
7.7 Leonard Pope (9-77-0)
2.9 Will Heller (4-29-0)
2.6 Ben Hartsock (3-26-0)
.0 Eric Johnson (0-0-0)

Monday, January 12, 2009

Fantasy Football Guidebook places 2nd in Fantasy Index magazines 2008 Expert Poll Kickers; 5th place Overall

Jeffrey Kamys of Dr. Stats Fantasy Sports is the winner of the kickers
portion of the 2008 Experts Poll hosted by Fantasy Football Index magazine.

After all 20 picks by all 20 experts were weighed and graded, Kamys earned
enough points to edge Sam Hendricks (Fantasy Football Guidebook) and
defending champion Dan Bakley (The Fantasy Point) for first place in this
category.

Scott Endsley of FantasyDraftEdge.com, meanwhile, earned enough points to
move to the top of the overall leaderboard. Endsley finished in 4th at
kickers and was 3rd in the defense category. Fantasy Football Guidebooks Sam Hendricks is the only other Expert to have finished in the top 8 in both categories so far.

Michael Nazarek (Fantasy Football Mastermind) and 2006 Scott Pianowski
(Yahoo! Sports) currently sit at second and third place on the overall
board, but it's still early. Yet to come are the results for quarterbacks,
running backs, wide receivers and tight ends, and those positions play a
bigger role in determining the overall champion - we're just getting warmed
up.

The poll, started in 1991, is different from other experts competition in
that every expert has to take a stand on every significant player - every
pick is scored. If an expert ranks a player No. 1 at a position, that
player's actual fantasy production is multiplied by 20. If an expert ranks a
player No. 2, the player's production is multiplied by 19. If the expert
ranks a player No. 3, the multiplier number is 18, and so on.

The scoring system isn't necessarily ideal. An expert is severely punished,
for example, if he lists a player who gets hurt. That's why the Fantasy
Football Index picks fared so poorly this year when compared to the field of
experts. We were high on the two New York kickers, Lawrence Tynes and Mike
Nugent. Both of those teams put up lots of kicking points, but when Tynes
and Nugent got hurt, it destroyed our draft board in that category.

Kamys had a noteworthy boo-boo in this category when he ranked Shayne Graham
3rd overall, but most others also had the Cincinnati kicker in their top 10.
Kamys separated himself from the field by ranking Matt Bryant (113 points)
13th - only four other experts listed Bryant at all - and by being lower
than the others on Josh Scobee (not even listed) and Adam Vinatieri (just
7th).

The top 11 finishers in this poll earn spots in the magazine's 2009 Experts
League, which will be published in the upcoming edition of the magazine.
Whichever expert finishes first in the overall poll will get his choice of
draft position; the 2nd-place finisher will get second choice of draft
spots, and so on. The 12th and final draft spot will go to a Fantasy
Football Index reader.

The final results for the tight ends position will be posted Friday.

FANTASY INDEX EXPERTS POLL, KICKERS

Points
24,051 Jeffrey Kamys (docstats.com)
23,879 Sam Hendricks (ffguidebook.com)
23,736 Dan Bakley (thefantasypoint.com)
23,732 Scott Endsley (fantasydraftedge.com)
23,717 Greg Rosenthal (rotoworld.com)
23,643 David Dorey (thehuddle.com)
23,590 Lenny Pappano (draftsharks.com)
23,569 Ryan Houston (fanball.com)
23,564 Louis Tranquilli (bfdfantasyfootball.com)
23,539 Scott Pianowski (Yahoo Sports)
23,482 Christopher Liss (rotowire.com)
23,462 James Serra (footballsoftward.com)
23,395 Michael Nazarek (ffmastermind.com)
23,218 Tommy Stephens (fantasyfootballedge.net)
23,127 Bob Henry (footballguys.com)
23,121 Greg Alan (4for4.com)
22,753 Roland Wood (dynastyrogues.com)
22,488 Kevin Marshall (draftwizard.com)
21,733 Nathan Zegura (thefantasyconsultant.com)
20,935 Craig Davis (fantasyfootball.com)

22,161 Fantasy Football Index (not officially included in poll).



FANTASY INDEX EXPERTS POLL, CURRENT OVERALL
(includes kickers and defense/special teams)

Points
55,718 Scott Endsley (fantasydraftedge.com)
55,469 Michael Nazarek (ffmastermind.com)
55,399 Scott Pianowski (Yahoo Sports)
55,341 Jeffrey Kamys (docstats.com)
55,325 Sam Hendricks (ffguidebook.com)
55,201 Roland Wood (dynastyrogues.com)
55,064 Dan Bakley (thefantasypoint.com)
55,045 David Dorey (thehuddle.com)
54,956 Louis Tranquilli (bfdfantasyfootball.com)
54,906 James Serra (footballsoftward.com)
54,872 Christopher Liss (rotowire.com)
54,771 Bob Henry (footballguys.com)
54,737 Greg Alan (4for4.com)
54,467 Ryan Houston (fanball.com)
54,464 Lenny Pappano (draftsharks.com)
54,227 Greg Rosenthal (rotoworld.com)
53,950 Tommy Stephens (fantasyfootballedge.net)
53,480 Kevin Marshall (draftwizard.com)
52,861 Nathan Zegura (thefantasyconsultant.com)
51,661 Craig Davis (fantasyfootball.com)

53,557 *Fantasy Football Index (not officially included in poll).



Kickers were given 3 points for field goals and 1 point for extra point. No
extra credit was awarded for kicks of 50-plus yards, which really hurt Jason
Hanson (NFL-record 8 field goals of 50-plus).

Kicker points for the poll were as follows ...

148 Stephen Gostkowski
144 David Akers
131 Matt Bryant
130 John Kasay
129 Jason Elam
127 Mason Crosby
127 Nate Kaeding
127 Rob Bironas
127 Ryan Longwell
124 Kris Brown
124 Rian Lindell
122 Matt Stover
121 Joe Nedney
119 Neil Rackers
119 Robbie Gould
117 Jeff Reed
112 Josh Brown
111 Jay Feely
108 Phil Dawson
103 Adam Vinatieri
103 Shaun Suisham
102 Nick Folk
102 Olindo Mare
97 Sebastian Janikowski
90 Josh Scobee
88 Jason Hanson
78 Shayne Graham
34 Martin Gramatica
6 Lawrence Tynes
2 Mike Nugent